Ordinary web site development is pretty much reduced to building Joomla or Wordpress themes, which is not a great way to make a living anyway with all the template chop shops operating out of India nowadays.
Small organizations migrating their desktop systems to the web are now driving web development as far as small web shops in North America are concerned.
Small organizations that cannot justify the cost of setting up and retraining staff to use proprietary systems are now looking to use their own websites to automate processes they already have in place but based on desktop systems (PDF, Excel and Access mostly). They also tend to be run by CEOs leery of getting roped into long term license agreements (software license slaves).

Tools like jQuery for the client side and MVC frameworks like CodeIgniter for the server side allow developers to quickly built scalable applications that are based on solid, industry accepted standards. These standards mean that one developer can easily pick up where another left off. This is a BIG factor in long term scalability. It is a paradigm shift that large corporations like Microsoft cannot easily adapt to because they are an active alternative to large one-for-all proprietary systems like SharePoint. Even large consulting and HR companies are starting to look for the same tools and standards us small web shop guys use because they are recognizing the importance of long term scalability and ease of maintenance, which is as far as they are concerned, not having to look on the dark side of the moon for a developer with skills to take over a project.
Over the last 4 years, I have been doing less web sites and more web applications based on jQuery and MVC frameworks for organizations with less than 100 employees. This is a growing market and I think the methods we (as in ALL of us) develop will eventually be adopted by more and more large organizations as well.